Dissertation
Through a Gendered Lens: Criminal Violence During the Electoral Process in Mexico
Chair: Lauren Young (Associate Professor, UCD)
Committee Members: Sandra Ley (Distinguished Professor, ITESM), Juan Tellez (Associate Professor, UCD), and Hanno Hilbig (Assistant Professor, UCD)
Since the start of Mexico’s drug war in 2006, thousands have been killed by Organized Criminal Groups. Part of this violence is the rise of criminal-electoral violence — election violence by criminal organizations to manipulate the electoral outcome — which threatens democratic institutions and electoral systems. However, little research has looked at its consequences on the electoral system throughout the whole election arch and its impact on women and men differently.
My project aims to address these gaps by reviewing criminal-electoral violence’s impact at each stage (candidate selection, the campaign, and post-election) and how gender shapes this experience so we can better understand the dynamics of criminal violence and what it means for the health of democratic institutions and elections. First, I explore how criminal-electoral violence influences who political parties select to run as candidates in Mexico and its impact on women candidates. Then, I break down how criminal organizations may change their behavior depending on the gender of a candidate they are trying to target. The final paper examines how gender differences among mayors may influence the level of criminal violence and perceptions of security in their communities.
Ultimately, by addressing the impact of criminal-electoral violence on women participating in politics and the whole arch of the electoral process, my project contributes to a more thorough understanding of the consequences of criminal violence and its impact on the health and stability of democratic institutions and electoral systems. My dissertation is part of a broader research agenda that explores the intersections of gender, violence, and crime, with a strong emphasis on the use of advanced statistical methods.
Publications
Daarstad, Haley, RyuGyung Park, and Timea Balogh. 2023. A Comment on Herzog, Baron, and Gibbons (2022). I4R Discussion Paper Series No. 97. Institute for Replication. Link to Paper.
Revise & Resubmit
Daarstad, Haley and Christopher Stout. 2026. The Virtuous Cycle: Female Political Incorporation and Media Coverage of Female Presidential Candidates in the United States. State Politics & Policy Quarterly. Show Abstract
We explore the impact of female political incorporation within each state on the quantity and tone of newspaper coverage for U.S. female presidential candidates. To accomplish this goal, we collected over 21,000 newspaper articles for 28 presidential candidates vying for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination and analyzed the amount of coverage and the tone of the coverage through content analysis. We then tested whether the level of female representation in each state legislature, statewide elected office, and in the U.S. House delegation was tied to the quality and quantity of media coverage for female candidates. Our results show that women Democratic candidates in 2020 received more coverage and more positive coverage in states where women are better politically incorporated. We did not find the same relationship for male presidential candidates. This study demonstrates that the gender context of the state is associated with the coverage women candidates receive.
Under Review
Baron, H., Daarstad, H., Ley, S., & Young, L. The Backfire Effect of Extrajudicial Violence: Evidence from Mexican Municipalities. Link to Paper. Show Abstract
Proponents of extrajudicial violence argue it improves safety and order, while critics contend it fails to deter crime and may worsen insecurity. We argue that extrajudicial violence exacerbates insecurity by normalizing violence as a means of resolving conflict, and only reduces targeted crimes where high social cohesion sustains mechanisms of social control. Using a difference-in-differences design, we estimate the effect of extrajudicial violence on administrative and survey-based measures of crime across Mexican municipalities from 2009 to 2022. We find that extrajudicial violence events are associated with small, short-term reductions in property crime, driven by municipalities with large indigenous populations. By contrast, they are associated with large, sustained, and broad-based increases in homicides—a crime that extrajudicial violence does not typically target. Together, these results suggest that extrajudicial violence has limited effectiveness as social control, and under-appreciated negative consequences for citizen security, highlighting the limits of order without law.
Working Papers
Daarstad, H. The Rise of Criminal Violence Against Political Actors and its Influence on Candidate Selection in Mexico. Draft Available Upon Request
Daarstad, H. Local Leadership and Gender Differences on Violence and Security Related to Organized Criminal Groups in Mexico. Draft Available Upon Request
Forrester, D., Daarstad, H., & Joseph, A. Too Manly for Peace? Masculine Overcompensation and Support for Peace in Colombia.
Daarstad, H. Gender Differences and High Profile Criminal Violence.
Daarstad, H. & Owens, F. The Effect of Climate Change on Criminal Organizations’ Illegal Economies and Turf Wars.
Conferences
Latin American Studies Association, Paris, France, 2026
American Political Science Association, 2025
European Political Science Association, 2025
Midwestern Political Science Association, 2023, 2024, 2026
Western Political Science Association, 2021, 2023
Upcoming: American Political Science Association, Boston, MA 2026